A Good Read

Hey everyone, just wanted to let you know that I've joined up a new blog at www.thepoweralley.blogspot.com . It's full of writers a lot more talented than I, so come over and check us out and you don't have to read about baseball all the time you can get your fix of other sports as well.

Top 25 Under 25 In 25: #10

Admittedly real life has gotten in the way of blogging a bit in the past couple of weeks. But once I get back to school I'll definitely have more free time, so hang in there readers, all three of you....

10. Howie Kendrick, 2B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Even though he is ranked #10 here, I'm not as high on Kendrick as many baseball experts seem to be. Granted, I'm not as smart as guys like Nate Silver and Joe Sheehan, and I realize Kendrick is a second baseman, but I don't see him having a lot of power and I don't think his OBP will be too much higher than his batting average since he swings at a lot of pitches-both good and bad. That being said, Kendrick will probably develop into a guy who hits 12-15 homers a year and will hit .320 or so, so when he wins a couple of batting titles and has OBPs north of .400, I guess everyone can show me this article and laugh.

Former #1 Pick Switches from Short to the Mound

Matt Bush, who the Padres drafted number one overall back in 2004 has officially moved from shortstop to pitcher. There was much speculation about the move, and it was well deserved, since Bush hit just .221/.291/.276 in three years of pro ball spread out at four different levels. Also, Bush suffered some minor injuries which helped decrease his range in the field. However, Bush still possesses a fantastic arm, and has topped out at 98 mph so far on the mound.

Bush will probably end up being the type of pitcher who will sit in the mid 90s and then rear back when he needs to to get to 98. This is a positive move all around, as Bush was seen as one of the biggest busts ever for a #1 pick, but this switch to the mound is the first step to hopefully a major league career for Matt Bush.

Lee signs with Senators

North Dakota defenseman Brian Lee, Ottawa's first round pick in 2005, has signed a deal with the Senators, forgoing his last two seasons of eligibility. At this point the native of Moorhead, Minnesota is the Fighting Sioux's only loss on the blueline. Lee totaled 53 points in two seasons in Grand Forks. Lee's departure will probably be felt much more on paper than on the ice. Lee's lackluster defensive efforts led to Blake Wheeler's overtime winner in the 2007 WCHA Final Five, along with Boston College's first empty net goal in the Frozen Four.

Top 25 Under 25 In 25: #11

11. Jeremy Bonderman, SP, Detroit Tigers

Bonderman, who before a couple of years ago was probably best known as the pitcher who caused Billy Beane to throw his chair in the book Moneyball, has lowered his ERA by a half run in each of his major league seasons. Last year he also topped the 200 strikeout plateau for the first time in his major league career. This year he also has a 4 defense independent ERA, which is a full half run lower than the league average. Also, this year is on pace to have his lowest walk total of his career. Bonderman should continue to put up large strikeout numbers, and if he keeps his walk numbers down he could develop into the best starter in the AL not named Santana.

Top 25 Under 25 in 25: #12

12. Felix Hernandez, RHP, Seattle Mariners

Felix is on the shortlist for best young pitchers in the game today. Felix has amazing stuff and tons of potential, but he hasn't quite harnessed it yet. Hernandez allowed 23 homers in his 31 starts last year, even though he struck out 176 batters. His mechanics have some slight problems in that he falls off to the first base side sometimes when he pitches and he uses his arm way too much to generate his power instead of using his considerable girth. But the thing to remember with Felix is that he's only 21, and he is striking out 8.9 batters per 9 innings this season, and I have to believe that he will dominate the American League in the coming years.

Top 25 Under 25 In 25: #13

13. Tim Lincecum, RHP, San Francisco Giants


It took the Giants awhile to bring Lincecum up, but thank God they did. Many people have expressed concerns over Lincecum's mechanics, but really they aren't bad at all. Lincecum has been compared to many pitchers, ranging from Koufax to Hershiser to Oswalt, but really he has a style all his own. He really rotates his hips so they almost face second base, and that, along with his tremendous arm speed helps generate his unbelievable velocity. Perhaps Lincecum could run into arm troubles later in his career due to the tough workload he went through at the University of Washington, but Lincecum has to be the best pitching prospect in the game today.

Top 25 Under 25 In 25: #14

14. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals

Zimmerman, the should have been NL ROY last year, is having a down year this year with the Nats. Zimmerman was drafted in 2005 out of the University of Virginia and was compared to Brooks Robinson defensively. Zimmerman has almost as many errors this season already (12) as he did last season (17). He had a 22 FRAA last season and just a 14 so far this year. Offensively Zimmerman hit 20 homers last year in RFK, arguably the best pitchers park in the majors. Even so, Zimmerman himself said he didn't have much power, and the homers were mostly a result of his line drives. Zimmerman doesn't have the upside of some of the people on this list, but he is almost a sure bet to be a steady contributor for the next decade.

Top 25 In 25 Under 25: #15

15. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Longoria, the D Rays first pick last year, is already the best prospect in the system, and in Tampa that's saying something. Last season, Longoria split time among three levels and hit .315/.360/.597. Yes thats right, a .597 slugging percentage. This year, in his first full season in AA, Longoria is hitting .274/.385/.520. Many people compare him to Milwaukee's Ryan Braun, but in reality he has a much higher upside. He is younger and has put up better numbers so far, and Longoria will be a 10 time all star and will eventually be the among the best third basemen in the majors.

Top 25 Under 25 In 25: #16

16. Chris Young, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks

Young is a player who fits the old mold of what makes a good baseball player (athletic, fast, projectable) rather than the newfangled model (patient, hits for tons of power), but he still gets here at #16. Why? Well, while he wont hit for a high average, and his OBP is godawful (.288 so far this season), but he is projected to have a 20/20 season and is right on that pace, and in the future you could easily see him hitting 25 homers and stealing 30 bases a year, all while playing a plus centerfield (although it will be interesting to see what happens when 2005 #1 overall pick Justin Upton comes up).

Top 25 Under 25 in 25: #17

Admittedly I've been a little slow to update this what with the draft and the college baseball going on. Hopefully you all can forgive me as we jump back into it

17. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees

Last year Cano had a .308 EqA and a 8.9 WARP3. He also had a very good 28 BRAA (Batting Runs Above Average). Cano isn't blessed with much power, and he doesn't run extremely well, but he plays acceptable defense, and he can hit extremely well. He was third in the majors in hitting last year, and while that season appears to be an anomaly, he should keep building up from his 2005 season and develop into one of the best second basemen in the majors.

Pick #30- New York (AL)

30. Andrew Brackman, RHP, NC State

A potentially top 3 selection, Brackman hasn't pitched in about a week due to a tired arm. Brackman played basketball as well at NC State and although he has a lot of developing to do, he is still a 7 footer who can throw nearly 100 MPH

Pick #29- San Francisco

29. Wendell Fairley, OF, George County-Lucedale HS, Mississippi

Another fast player, Fairley will be a centerfielder who is the prototypical five tool player. Probably a bit of a reach, but Fairley is a high ceiling player who will be signable after those two other first rounders.

Pick #28- Minnesota

28. Ben Revere, OF, Lexington HS, Kentucky

An extremely fast runner, Revere wasn't very high on a lot of players boards. An extremely good athlete, the Twins are going to have to develop him a bunch and hopefully he can end up being a long term replacement in center field.

Pick #27- Detroit

27. Rick Porcello, RHP, Seton Hall Prep, New Jersey

Probably the highest ranked high school pitcher, Porcello is going to command an extremely large bonus. He has four quality pitches, but I think in the end he'll either go unsigned or he'll cost too much for his value.

Pick #26- Oakland

26. James Simmons, RHP, UC Riverside

Had a 1.18 ERA in the 06 Cape Cod League. He has good upside and excellent command. He doesn't have too much in the way of hard breaking stuff, but he can certainly keep hitters off balance. And oh yeah, a huge suprise as the A's take yet another college player.

Pick #25- Chicago (AL)

25. Aaron Poreda, LHP, U of San Francisco

Poreda doesn't have much in the way of secondary pitches, but he throws extremely hard and can get a lot of guys out since he gets ahead of a lot of batters. He has kind of come out of nowhere so it will be exciting to see how he develops.

Pick #24- Texas

24. Michael Main, RHP, Deland HS, Florida

Main began the year as one of the top high school arms in the draft. He can throw in the high 90s, and he is extremely athletic. He has a good breaking ball, and can spot it wherever he wants to. Texas has a terrible pitchers park, but Main has the type of arm to get it done.

Pick #23- San Diego

23. Nick Schmidt, LHP, Arkansas

Schmidt has been flying up draft boards and was even rumored to be a top 10 pick, which would have been a reach. Schmidt will probably reach the majors very quickly, but he may or may not develop into anything more than he already is.

Pick #22- San Francisco

22. Tim Alderson, Horizon HS, Arizona

A big kid at 6'7", Alderson probably won't be a starter. A wierd thing about him is he doesn't throw out of the windup. He has very good command, especially for a high school player. His delivery may be cause for concern, which is why he will be a reliever.

Pick #21- Toronto

21. JP Arencibia, C, U Tennessee

Had some injury problems this year, but he has extreme power potential. He loses some potential if he has to switch to 1B, but I don't think he'll have to. Arencibia probably won't be a high average guy as he has an all or nothing swing.

Pick #20- Los Angeles (NL)

20. Chris Withrow, RHP, Midland HS, Texas

A tall righthander, crisp delivery who is projectable. Withrow is going to have to develop and he may need a lot of time to do so. He has three good pitches and is extremely athletic.

Pick #19- Philadelphia

19. Joe Savery, LHP, Rice University

One of the highest ceiling players in the draft, Savery is an excellent pick. He has some injury problems, but he is one of the top picks in the entire country. Savery could be an even better pitcher than David Price. Sits in the low 90's, but he can hit spots with the best of them. Also should be a good hitting pitcher

Pick #18- St. Louis

18. Peter Kozma, SS, Owasso HS, Oklahoma

Not an extremely athletic shortstop, he is around average with all of his five tools. Fundamentally sound, but Kozma is certainly a reach for the Cardinals as he has basically zero upside.

Pick #17- Texas

17. Blake Beavan, RHP, Irving HS, Texas

A big kid, Beavan struck out 139 batters in just over 70 innings this year. He has kind of an ugly delivery with a lot of recoil, but he has good command and plus stuff, so it's no real suprise that Texas picked the local kid. Beavan is maybe the best competitor in the draft, as he defeated Cuba with the US national junior team.

Pick #16- Toronto

16. Kevin Ahrens, 3B, Memorial HS, Texas

Ahrens played SS in high school, but will move to 3rd at the pro level. A good switch hitter with power, Ahrens has been compared to Chipper Jones. His less than average range is what could force a move to 3rd. He has a great approach at both sides of the plate, even though he is relatively new to switch hitting.

Pick #15- Cincinnati

15. Devin Mesoraco, C, Puxatawney HS, Pennsylvania

Probably the best player available who is also signable, Mesoraco shot up draft boards throughout the whole season. A good comp is Russell Martin. He did have Tommy John surgery last year and he has questions to answer.

Pick #14- Atlanta

14. Jason Heyward, OF, Henry County HS, Georgia

The first high school outfielder taken, Heyward has a lot of upside. The Braves love taking kids right out of their backyard, such as Jeff Francoeur and Brian McCann. Heyward joins a young system and could profile as a Cameron Maybin type.

Pick #13- Cleveland

13. Beau Mills, 3B/1B, Lewis and Clark State

The NAIA player of the year, Mills has a bunch of power, but zero defense. He could make a major league roster fairly quickly, but doesn't have many places to go after that.

Pick #12- Florida

12. Matt Dominguez, 3B, Chatsworth HS, California

A high school teammate of Mike Moustakas, Dominguez began the year as a top 10 talent. He is a smallish player, but he is very projectable who will develop into a power hitting third basemen. He pushed Moustakas off third with his gold glove defense at third base, and he has been compared to Nats 3B Ryan Zimmerman

Pick #11- Seattle

11. Phillipe Aumont, RHP, Ecole du Versant (Canada)

Some say Aumont could be the best pitcher of the 07 draft. Aumont didn't have many games to play, and he had to throw indoors a lot of times for scouts. Aumont could either end up being the best pitcher in the draft, or the most overrated.

Pick #10- San Francisco

10. Madison Bumgartner, LHP, South Caldwell HS, North Carolina

Bumgartner is the 10th straight first round pitcher taken by the Giants, and has some big shoes to fill in Tim Lincecum. Upside wise he is fantastic, although his changeup could give them some troubles and he has some development issues.

9- Arizona

9. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Norwell High School, Indiana

The first high school pitcher taken, Parker is the only high schooler not to exhibit high bonus demands. Parker isn't as much of a high-ceiling guy as the other high schoolers.

PIck #8- Colorado

8. Casey Weathers, LHP, Vanderbilt

Weathers is the highest drafted college reliever ever. He is an easy sign, as he is a college senior. He throws pretty hard and he could be in the majors extremely quickly as the Rockies might trade Brian Fuentes

Pick #7- Milwaukee

7. Matt LaPorta, 1B, University of Florida

Probably the biggest shock so far in the draft, LaPorta is a pure slugger who doesn't seemingly have a place in the Brewers orginization. LaPorta was projected to go towards the lower half of the first round. A good bat, but this is probably the biggest suprise so far.

Pick #6- Washington

6. Ross Detwiler, LHP, Missouri State University

Detwiler throws pure gas, with a nice curve ball. However, there are some slight concerns about his arm. He may have arm trouble in his career, and there are slight concerns about the competition he faced in college as part of the Missouri Valley Conference.

Pick #5- Baltimore

5. Matt Wieters, C, Georgia Tech

Wieters is rated as the best hitting prospect in the draft. a 6'5" catcher, Wieters has no doubt been compared to Joe Mauer. This could end up being the best pick value-wise in the draft, and the Orioles have the money to satisfy Scott Boras. Also, Wieters is great behind the plate with a fantastic arm, as he was the Yellow Jackets closer for part of the season.

Pick #4- Pittsburgh

4. Daniel Moskos, LHP, Clemson University

The second college pitcher taken, Moskos is a polished guy who can get his fastball up to 97. Moskos hasn't had many high pitch counts in his college career, so he will have a fresher arm than your typical college pitcher. Moskos throws a lot of ground balls, and he could get to the majors quickly.

Pick #3- Chicago (NL)

3. Josh Vitters, 3B, Cypress HS, California

This pick had been rumored for a while, as scouting director Tim Wilken has supposedly been infatuated with Vitters for awhile. Vitters has been called the best bat in the draft. Vitters could be on the fast track, and there's thoughts of a major league deal in the works.

Pick #2- Kansas City

2. Mike Moustakas- Chatsworth High School, Chatsworth, CA


This pick semi-puzzles me due to the Scott Boras factor. Moustakas is a fantastic high school bat who is extremely athletic and can touch 95 off a mound. But if the Royals were going to take a Boras client, why not Porcello or Wieters who may cost more but have greater upside.

Pick #1-Tampa Bay

1. David Price, LHP, Vanderbilt Univ.

Big yawn here. Price has been rumored to go #1 for months now. In a thin system pitching-wise, Price could be a September callup in 2008, or on the opening day roster in 09. Price is the national college player of the year, and only lost 1 game in 2007 as he struck out 175 batters.

MLB Draft

With the MLB Draft just 2 hours away, and the strong possibility that I won't have to go into work due to the typhoon outside, I will be posting each pick of the first round with a mini-comment on each. Obviously I'm not a big draft expert and this will be mostly from a fan's perspective, but if you want some real in-depth analysis head over to Baseball Prospectus or mlb.com

Super Regional Preview

The field of 64 has been trimmed to 16. Some major upsets were in the works, as only 3 of the top 8 national seeds advanced to super regional play, and it's possible that we could have no national seeds in Omaha. We'll preview the left side of the bracket today and the other side either tomorrow or on Thursday.

Corvallis Super Regional
2. Michigan at 3. Oregon State

How They Got Here- Oregon St. defeated Virginia today to advance to the Super Regional. This is their third straight year hosting a Super Regional. Michigan defeated suprise tourney team Memphis, along with #1 national seed Vanderbilt twice to earn the trip to Corvallis

Players to Watch- Michigan 2b/SP Zach Putnam is one of the best two way players in the entire nation. The defending national champs have some key players left over, including Mitch Canham, a junior catcher who's hitting .323/.454/.535. Canham was drafted in the 41st round by the St. Louis Cardinals last season as a draft eligible sophomore, and seemingly made the right decision to return to school.

Who Will Win- I think a lot of college baseball fans will root for Michigan due to the cinderella factor. This Super Regional will mean there will be at least one northern team in the CWS, which is great for expanding the game. But in the end I think Oregon St. has too much experience and will take this series in three games.

Fullerton Super Regional

2. UCLA at 2. Cal State Fullerton

How They Got Here: UCLA won the Long Beach regional, one of the toughest in the country, with Long Beach, and maybe the best three seed in the tournament in Pepperdine. In fact, Baseball America's Aaron Fitt picked Pepperdine to get all the way to Omaha. Fullerton, while not the Fullerton of old, defeated San Diego, who was maybe the best team out West this year.

Players to Watch: UCLA IF Brandon Crawford (.338/.410/.513 7 HR, 123 Total Bases)

Fullerton SP Wes Roemer

Who Will Win: As I said above, Fullerton isn't the Fullerton of old, so it's interesting that they got to host this Super Regional. They have a lot of talent, and I think their home ballpark will give them a win, but in the end UCLA will win this series in three games.

Tempe Super Regional

1. Ole Miss at 1. Arizona State (#5 National Seeed)

How They Got Here: Arizona State powered through their regional, scoring 33 runs with a pretty weak field in their way. The Sun Devils have the best offense in the nation, and they hit extremely well in their home ballpark, where they will be this weekend. Ole Miss won their regional in Oxford. Theirs was also a pretty weak region, with Troy in there who was probably the 63rd or 64th team in the field.

Players To Watch: Arizona St. 1b Brett Wallace (.420/.500/.712 15 HR, 74 RBI, 173 Total Bases)

Ole Miss IF Justin Henry (.385/.453/.504 21 SB)

Who Will Win: This is probably the most lopsided matchup, as Arizona St. has too much offense and will sweep this Super Regional

Wichita Super Regional

2. UC Irvine at 1. Wichita State

How They Got Here: A lot of people had Arizona as a mini upset pick, but Wichita St. breezed through their regional. UC Irvine won the Round Rock Regional and sent Texas home before Super Regional play for the second straight year.

Players to Watch: Wichita St IF/P Damon Sublett (.364/.470/.510 5 HR 45 RBI)

UC Irvine Taylor Holliday (.353/.415/.571 4 HR 41 RBI)

Who Will Win: In a pretty evenly matched series, I think UC Irvine will win the series in three games

Vandy Upset

Vanderbilt lefty David Price, who is expected to go #1 overall to the Devil Rays on Thursday, took his first loss of the season when the Commodores lost 4-3 to Michigan, the #2 seed in the Nashville Regional. Price (11-1) gave up a game winning homerun to Michigan pinch hitter Alan Oaks in the top of the 10th inning. Price had previously thrown in the Commodores' first game win over #4 seed Austin Peay. Price tied a career high with 17 strikeouts in that game.

This was the second time in the regional that Michigan defeated the Commodores. Michigan will now get the winner of the Charlottesville Regional, which features Virginia and defending national champion Oregon St. playing tomorrow in the championship game. If Virginia wins they will host the Super Regional, but it will be interesting to see what happens if Oregon St. wins. Michigan is the higher seed, but the Beavers are the defending national champions and they hosted Super Regionals in the past two seasons.

Now that Vanderbilt has been eliminated, Rice becomes the highest remaining seed, and they along with North Carolina, last year's national runner-up, become the favorites. #4 National Seed Texas failed to advance out of their regional for the second year in a row. Super Regionals begin this weekend, and we'll be back with a mini-preview for each. If you want more college baseball coverage, including podcasts, go to www.baseballamerica.com

Top 25 Under 25 In 25: #18

18. Homer Bailey, SP, Cincinnati Reds

The 7th overall pick in 2004, Bailey seems poised for his MLB debut soon. The Reds have exausted reasons for not bringing Bailey up. They talked about Bailey's unusually low strikeout rates, but he has struck out 43 in 52.1 IP so far this season. He has also cut down his walks, for barely over a 1.00 WHIP. Bailey certainly can perform better than Eric Milton or Kyle Lohse over the long term, and with Kirk Saarloos recently being sent down, Bailey's arrival seems imminent.