12. Felix Hernandez, RHP, Seattle Mariners
Felix is on the shortlist for best young pitchers in the game today. Felix has amazing stuff and tons of potential, but he hasn't quite harnessed it yet. Hernandez allowed 23 homers in his 31 starts last year, even though he struck out 176 batters. His mechanics have some slight problems in that he falls off to the first base side sometimes when he pitches and he uses his arm way too much to generate his power instead of using his considerable girth. But the thing to remember with Felix is that he's only 21, and he is striking out 8.9 batters per 9 innings this season, and I have to believe that he will dominate the American League in the coming years.
Monday, June 18, 2007
Sunday, June 17, 2007
Top 25 Under 25 In 25: #13
13. Tim Lincecum, RHP, San Francisco GiantsIt took the Giants awhile to bring Lincecum up, but thank God they did. Many people have expressed concerns over Lincecum's mechanics, but really they aren't bad at all. Lincecum has been compared to many pitchers, ranging from Koufax to Hershiser to Oswalt, but really he has a style all his own. He really rotates his hips so they almost face second base, and that, along with his tremendous arm speed helps generate his unbelievable velocity. Perhaps Lincecum could run into arm troubles later in his career due to the tough workload he went through at the University of Washington, but Lincecum has to be the best pitching prospect in the game today.
Saturday, June 16, 2007
Top 25 Under 25 In 25: #14
14. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals
Zimmerman, the should have been NL ROY last year, is having a down year this year with the Nats. Zimmerman was drafted in 2005 out of the University of Virginia and was compared to Brooks Robinson defensively. Zimmerman has almost as many errors this season already (12) as he did last season (17). He had a 22 FRAA last season and just a 14 so far this year. Offensively Zimmerman hit 20 homers last year in RFK, arguably the best pitchers park in the majors. Even so, Zimmerman himself said he didn't have much power, and the homers were mostly a result of his line drives. Zimmerman doesn't have the upside of some of the people on this list, but he is almost a sure bet to be a steady contributor for the next decade.
Zimmerman, the should have been NL ROY last year, is having a down year this year with the Nats. Zimmerman was drafted in 2005 out of the University of Virginia and was compared to Brooks Robinson defensively. Zimmerman has almost as many errors this season already (12) as he did last season (17). He had a 22 FRAA last season and just a 14 so far this year. Offensively Zimmerman hit 20 homers last year in RFK, arguably the best pitchers park in the majors. Even so, Zimmerman himself said he didn't have much power, and the homers were mostly a result of his line drives. Zimmerman doesn't have the upside of some of the people on this list, but he is almost a sure bet to be a steady contributor for the next decade.
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
Top 25 In 25 Under 25: #15
15. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Longoria, the D Rays first pick last year, is already the best prospect in the system, and in Tampa that's saying something. Last season, Longoria split time among three levels and hit .315/.360/.597. Yes thats right, a .597 slugging percentage. This year, in his first full season in AA, Longoria is hitting .274/.385/.520. Many people compare him to Milwaukee's Ryan Braun, but in reality he has a much higher upside. He is younger and has put up better numbers so far, and Longoria will be a 10 time all star and will eventually be the among the best third basemen in the majors.
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Top 25 Under 25 In 25: #16
16. Chris Young, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Young is a player who fits the old mold of what makes a good baseball player (athletic, fast, projectable) rather than the newfangled model (patient, hits for tons of power), but he still gets here at #16. Why? Well, while he wont hit for a high average, and his OBP is godawful (.288 so far this season), but he is projected to have a 20/20 season and is right on that pace, and in the future you could easily see him hitting 25 homers and stealing 30 bases a year, all while playing a plus centerfield (although it will be interesting to see what happens when 2005 #1 overall pick Justin Upton comes up).
Monday, June 11, 2007
Top 25 Under 25 in 25: #17
Admittedly I've been a little slow to update this what with the draft and the college baseball going on. Hopefully you all can forgive me as we jump back into it
17. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees
Last year Cano had a .308 EqA and a 8.9 WARP3. He also had a very good 28 BRAA (Batting Runs Above Average). Cano isn't blessed with much power, and he doesn't run extremely well, but he plays acceptable defense, and he can hit extremely well. He was third in the majors in hitting last year, and while that season appears to be an anomaly, he should keep building up from his 2005 season and develop into one of the best second basemen in the majors.
17. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees
Last year Cano had a .308 EqA and a 8.9 WARP3. He also had a very good 28 BRAA (Batting Runs Above Average). Cano isn't blessed with much power, and he doesn't run extremely well, but he plays acceptable defense, and he can hit extremely well. He was third in the majors in hitting last year, and while that season appears to be an anomaly, he should keep building up from his 2005 season and develop into one of the best second basemen in the majors.
Thursday, June 7, 2007
Pick #30- New York (AL)
30. Andrew Brackman, RHP, NC State
A potentially top 3 selection, Brackman hasn't pitched in about a week due to a tired arm. Brackman played basketball as well at NC State and although he has a lot of developing to do, he is still a 7 footer who can throw nearly 100 MPH
A potentially top 3 selection, Brackman hasn't pitched in about a week due to a tired arm. Brackman played basketball as well at NC State and although he has a lot of developing to do, he is still a 7 footer who can throw nearly 100 MPH
Pick #29- San Francisco
29. Wendell Fairley, OF, George County-Lucedale HS, Mississippi
Another fast player, Fairley will be a centerfielder who is the prototypical five tool player. Probably a bit of a reach, but Fairley is a high ceiling player who will be signable after those two other first rounders.
Another fast player, Fairley will be a centerfielder who is the prototypical five tool player. Probably a bit of a reach, but Fairley is a high ceiling player who will be signable after those two other first rounders.
Pick #28- Minnesota
28. Ben Revere, OF, Lexington HS, Kentucky
An extremely fast runner, Revere wasn't very high on a lot of players boards. An extremely good athlete, the Twins are going to have to develop him a bunch and hopefully he can end up being a long term replacement in center field.
An extremely fast runner, Revere wasn't very high on a lot of players boards. An extremely good athlete, the Twins are going to have to develop him a bunch and hopefully he can end up being a long term replacement in center field.
Pick #27- Detroit
27. Rick Porcello, RHP, Seton Hall Prep, New Jersey
Probably the highest ranked high school pitcher, Porcello is going to command an extremely large bonus. He has four quality pitches, but I think in the end he'll either go unsigned or he'll cost too much for his value.
Probably the highest ranked high school pitcher, Porcello is going to command an extremely large bonus. He has four quality pitches, but I think in the end he'll either go unsigned or he'll cost too much for his value.
Pick #26- Oakland
26. James Simmons, RHP, UC Riverside
Had a 1.18 ERA in the 06 Cape Cod League. He has good upside and excellent command. He doesn't have too much in the way of hard breaking stuff, but he can certainly keep hitters off balance. And oh yeah, a huge suprise as the A's take yet another college player.
Had a 1.18 ERA in the 06 Cape Cod League. He has good upside and excellent command. He doesn't have too much in the way of hard breaking stuff, but he can certainly keep hitters off balance. And oh yeah, a huge suprise as the A's take yet another college player.
Pick #25- Chicago (AL)
25. Aaron Poreda, LHP, U of San Francisco
Poreda doesn't have much in the way of secondary pitches, but he throws extremely hard and can get a lot of guys out since he gets ahead of a lot of batters. He has kind of come out of nowhere so it will be exciting to see how he develops.
Poreda doesn't have much in the way of secondary pitches, but he throws extremely hard and can get a lot of guys out since he gets ahead of a lot of batters. He has kind of come out of nowhere so it will be exciting to see how he develops.
Pick #24- Texas
24. Michael Main, RHP, Deland HS, Florida
Main began the year as one of the top high school arms in the draft. He can throw in the high 90s, and he is extremely athletic. He has a good breaking ball, and can spot it wherever he wants to. Texas has a terrible pitchers park, but Main has the type of arm to get it done.
Main began the year as one of the top high school arms in the draft. He can throw in the high 90s, and he is extremely athletic. He has a good breaking ball, and can spot it wherever he wants to. Texas has a terrible pitchers park, but Main has the type of arm to get it done.
Pick #23- San Diego
23. Nick Schmidt, LHP, Arkansas
Schmidt has been flying up draft boards and was even rumored to be a top 10 pick, which would have been a reach. Schmidt will probably reach the majors very quickly, but he may or may not develop into anything more than he already is.
Schmidt has been flying up draft boards and was even rumored to be a top 10 pick, which would have been a reach. Schmidt will probably reach the majors very quickly, but he may or may not develop into anything more than he already is.
Pick #22- San Francisco
22. Tim Alderson, Horizon HS, Arizona
A big kid at 6'7", Alderson probably won't be a starter. A wierd thing about him is he doesn't throw out of the windup. He has very good command, especially for a high school player. His delivery may be cause for concern, which is why he will be a reliever.
A big kid at 6'7", Alderson probably won't be a starter. A wierd thing about him is he doesn't throw out of the windup. He has very good command, especially for a high school player. His delivery may be cause for concern, which is why he will be a reliever.
Pick #21- Toronto
21. JP Arencibia, C, U Tennessee
Had some injury problems this year, but he has extreme power potential. He loses some potential if he has to switch to 1B, but I don't think he'll have to. Arencibia probably won't be a high average guy as he has an all or nothing swing.
Had some injury problems this year, but he has extreme power potential. He loses some potential if he has to switch to 1B, but I don't think he'll have to. Arencibia probably won't be a high average guy as he has an all or nothing swing.
Pick #20- Los Angeles (NL)
20. Chris Withrow, RHP, Midland HS, Texas
A tall righthander, crisp delivery who is projectable. Withrow is going to have to develop and he may need a lot of time to do so. He has three good pitches and is extremely athletic.
A tall righthander, crisp delivery who is projectable. Withrow is going to have to develop and he may need a lot of time to do so. He has three good pitches and is extremely athletic.
Pick #19- Philadelphia
19. Joe Savery, LHP, Rice University
One of the highest ceiling players in the draft, Savery is an excellent pick. He has some injury problems, but he is one of the top picks in the entire country. Savery could be an even better pitcher than David Price. Sits in the low 90's, but he can hit spots with the best of them. Also should be a good hitting pitcher
One of the highest ceiling players in the draft, Savery is an excellent pick. He has some injury problems, but he is one of the top picks in the entire country. Savery could be an even better pitcher than David Price. Sits in the low 90's, but he can hit spots with the best of them. Also should be a good hitting pitcher
Pick #18- St. Louis
18. Peter Kozma, SS, Owasso HS, Oklahoma
Not an extremely athletic shortstop, he is around average with all of his five tools. Fundamentally sound, but Kozma is certainly a reach for the Cardinals as he has basically zero upside.
Not an extremely athletic shortstop, he is around average with all of his five tools. Fundamentally sound, but Kozma is certainly a reach for the Cardinals as he has basically zero upside.
Pick #17- Texas
17. Blake Beavan, RHP, Irving HS, Texas
A big kid, Beavan struck out 139 batters in just over 70 innings this year. He has kind of an ugly delivery with a lot of recoil, but he has good command and plus stuff, so it's no real suprise that Texas picked the local kid. Beavan is maybe the best competitor in the draft, as he defeated Cuba with the US national junior team.
A big kid, Beavan struck out 139 batters in just over 70 innings this year. He has kind of an ugly delivery with a lot of recoil, but he has good command and plus stuff, so it's no real suprise that Texas picked the local kid. Beavan is maybe the best competitor in the draft, as he defeated Cuba with the US national junior team.
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