Thursday, May 31, 2007

Top 25 Under 25 In 25: #18

18. Homer Bailey, SP, Cincinnati Reds

The 7th overall pick in 2004, Bailey seems poised for his MLB debut soon. The Reds have exausted reasons for not bringing Bailey up. They talked about Bailey's unusually low strikeout rates, but he has struck out 43 in 52.1 IP so far this season. He has also cut down his walks, for barely over a 1.00 WHIP. Bailey certainly can perform better than Eric Milton or Kyle Lohse over the long term, and with Kirk Saarloos recently being sent down, Bailey's arrival seems imminent.

Sunday, May 27, 2007

Top 25 Under 25 In 25: #19

19. Russell Martin, C, Los Angeles Dodgers

One of the top young catchers in the game, Martin hit 10 homers in 415 at bats last season. He also displayed one of the rarer skills for a catcher to have by stealing 10 bases. This year Martin has nearly the same number of walks and strikeouts, along with a .308 EqA and a 2.8 WARP. Martin has nearly a .400 OBP, which means he should probably be hitting leadoff instead of Rafael Furcal or the godawful Juan Pierre. Martin should be one of the young centerpieces of this Dodgers lineup for at least the next five years, and possibly longer, as he shouldn't have to move from behind the plate

Friday, May 25, 2007

Links for the Weekend

Happy Memorial Day weekend everybody. The best part is, I get 4 days off work, but I'm sure there's other good stuff about the weekend, like remembering what it's named for and what not. Anyways, here are some links to get you by.

Ranking female athletes the only way it really matters.... [The Sporting Orange]

DH or no DH? [Complete Sports]

How about interleague or no interleague? [The Sports Flow]

The Big Lead..naughty naughty [The Big Lead]

Speakin of which....Elijah Dukes [The Baseball Nation]

Scott Baker...actual major league quality pitcher? [The Baseball Nation]

Not a big NBA fan, but a good NBA post. [Sports Talk Daily]

Thats all I got for now, so check those out (especially the first one) and make sure you all have a good Memorial Day weekend.

Top 25 Under 25 In 25: #20


20. Delmon Young, OF, Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Sure Delmon is only hitting .239/.281/.378, and yes he doesn't possess the greatest plate discipline, but he still has the overall skills package to become a superstar. Usually his lack of control over the strike zone would be cause for concern, but he has the pure athleticism to make up for it. A classic 5 tool player, the former #1 overall pick is part of a glut of young talent in the Tampa outfield-and he may be the best of all of them. Young should develop into a .280/.350/.450 type hitter, with the ability to hit 30 homers and steal 20 bases every season.

Sunday, May 20, 2007

Top 25 Under 25 In 25: #21

21. Stephen Drew, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks

Drew, a first round pick out of Florida State, has star written all over him. Scouts have said he projects to be as good as his brother JD, but with all the benefits of being a shortstop. Drew was rumored to be the #1 pick when he came out, but signability issues due to his advisor, Scott Boras, led to him falling to the middle of the first round. Drew is in a bit of a funk so far this season, posting just a .303 OBP, but throughout his career Drew should be a .300/.370/.430 type of hitter: not a lot of power, but he can handle the bat well and is selective enough to post good OBP's for the next decade.

Saturday, May 19, 2007

Top 25 Under 25 in 25: #22


22. Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies


Hamels is quickly working his way into the top tier of pitchers. Currently second in the majors with 70 strikeouts, Hamels is way ahead of pace when he struck out 145 batters last season. Posessing a low to mid 90s fastball, Hamels makes his living with an amazing changeup that has scouts comparing it to Johan Santana's. Suprisingly, 58 of Hamels 70 strikeouts have come against right handed batters.

Recently, the Phillies have tried to dump some salary in an effort to rebuild, and there's no doubt that Hamels is the focal point of the Phillies' rebuilding efforts, especially as far as the rotation is concerned.

Tuesday, May 15, 2007

Top 25 Under 25 In 25: #23


23. Phillip Hughes, P, New York Yankees


Hughes was drafted 22nd overall by the Yankees in 2004. He currently is ranked #1 in the Yankees system, and was viewed as the poster boy of the Yankees' new focus on developing minor league talent. Last year in the minors Hughes struck out 168 batters and allowed just a .179 BAA. Hughes had just a .189 BAA in two major league starts this season, and he is currently on the disabled list. Scouts rave about Hughes, who has the talent to be an all star for years to come. Hughes has three major league plus pitches, and it is his third pitch, his changeup, which scouts say could end up being his best pitch. We'll no doubt be discussing a changeup as well tomorrow.

Monday, May 14, 2007

Top 25 Under 25 In 25: #24

For the next 25 or so days, I will be taking a look at the 25 best players in baseball under the age of 25. A quick note: a players age is taken into account. For example, for players of similar talents, a 20 year old is rated higher than a 25 year old. This would explain our next player....



24. Carl Crawford, OF, Tampa Bay Devil Rays



Crawford, the do everything left fielder for the Devil Rays, has been their franchise player since he came into the league. His OBPs have been steadily climbing ever since he entered the majors, although it is currently at his career high, which is only .366. Crawford's talents lie in his feet. He has stolen 50+ bases three times in his career, and is on pace for 50 again this season. Crawford won't hit for a lot of power, but his speed and defense combine to make him a good all around player. He should get better, but he has limited upside when compared to other players that you'll see in this list, and that lands him at 24.

Sunday, May 13, 2007

Hello

It's great to be here. My name is Petey and I will assisting Stephen A in the creation of this blog. I'm going to be a sophomore at the University of North Dakota next fall. A little about me and my sports obsessions. I would rank my passion for sports in this order (I'll also give my favorite team/player in each sport):

1. Major League Baseball (Minnesota Twins)
2. College Football (Nebraska Cornhuskers/Minnesota Golden Gophers)
3. College Basketball (Arizona/Minnesota/Nebraska)
4. NFL (Minnesota Vikings)
5. World Soccer, by world I mean the American stuff sucks (Manchester United)
6. NHL (Minnesota Wild)
7. College Baseball (Nebraska)
8. College Hockey (North Dakota Fighting Sioux)
9. Tennis (Andy Roddick)
10. NBA (Chicago Bulls, see I'm not a total homer)

My posts will probably follow in that order of preference, so if you want NBA talk, you probably shouldn't venture this way. Look for more posts to come soon.

Top 25 Under 25 In 25: #25

Each day or so for the next 25 days, we'll be taking a look at the best 25 players in baseball under the age of 25.



25. Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers


The son of former Detroit Tiger Cecil Fielder, Prince has inherited his dad's mammoth body, and his ability to hit mammoth homeruns. Famously mentioned in the book Moneyball, Prince has blossomed into a good major league player. Fielder already has 11 homers this season, and looks to be a safe bet to eclipse his career high of 28, which he set last year. Although he is certainly a large man, Fielder can steal a few bases and is a good baserunner. His defense is improving at first, and he should develop into a .280+ hitter who will have a high OBP and the ability to hit 30 homeruns a year

Saturday, May 12, 2007

Book Review: Fantasyland


Although I'm probably late, I just read the book Fantasyland by Sam Walker, a writer who spent a year competing in America's most competitive Fantasy Baseball League, Tout Wars. Along the way Walker highers two men, one of whom is a NASA scientist and another who uses nothing more than his gut to value baseball players. He also hired an attractive woman to help give him an advantage in the draft, not to mention an astronomer to give him advice on players.

While Walker didn't do terribly well (he finished 8th out of 12 teams, including finishing 1 spot and 7 points worse than the now semi-famous Joe Sheehan of BP, 2004's only other rookie in Tout that year), he also had perhaps the unluckiest team that year, including a devastating injury to then White Sox outfielder Magglio Ordonez. Also, Walker managed to finish 1st in thr 2005 version of Tout Wars.

This book shows how crazy some people can get about their fantasy teams, and the lengths at which people will go to improve their teams. At one point Walker called Pittsburgh Pirates GM Dave Littlefield to persuade him to trade for Doug Mientkiewicz so that he could get more playing time than if he went to Boston.

While I don't think I could ever get so worked up over my fantasy team, this book shows both the dark side and the good side of managing a fantasy baseball team. This book really piqued my interest in auction style drafts and non mixed leagues. Hopefully I can talk my fellow league mates this year into doing a non mixed auction league next year. I could have done without a lot of the sections about the history of fantasy baseball, but whether you're a fantasy baseball fan or just a baseball fan I would highly recommend this book.

Rating: 4.5 Stars out of 5

So Who Would Win?

The AL and NL both have a good group of rookies this season, but who would win if they were matched up in a game, or a series?

Offense

The American League probably has more major league ready hitting, with Garko, Pedroia and Gordon, but the National Leaguers have some high ceiling guys such as Stephen Drew and Chris Young. I probably didn't do an excellent job of selecting my AL outfield, especially with Travis Buck but I couldn't think of anyone else better. In the end however I just think Alex Gordon outweighs anything the NL has to offer in the middle of their lineup to give the American League the slight advantage here.

Pitching

This one is obviously no contest. The AL has some nice pitchers: Matt Garza pitched well last year, albeit struggled in the Majors, and Phil Hughes had a shot at a no no in just his second major league start. Obviously Matsuzaka would help them here. The NL though just has too much firepower. Lincecum and Bailey would be one of the better top twos in the major leagues, so having them on this team is huge. Plus Gallardo isn't exactly a stick in the mud in the 3 spot. Big big advantage to the National League.

So I suppose when you break it all down, even though I'm an AL fan, the winners have to be the National League. Lincecum and Bailey could both shut down the AL all-stars better than the AL starters could limit the NL bats. Even if there was a DH, the AL is giving away a free out with Jeff Mathis at catcher. Although the American League is better overall, the rookie battle certainly goes to the NL

Friday, May 4, 2007

2007 NL All Rookie Team

With my AL team out of the way (see below), it's the NL's turn. After that we'll compare the two teams to see who would come out on top in a seven game series.

Catcher-Chris Iannetta, Colorado Rockies
Yes, Iannetta is hitting .182 and is losing playing time to Yorvit Torrealba. Yes, the Sports Flow picked Carlos Ruiz as their catcher, yes he is striking out much much more than he should be. But while there is a month of sample size to suggest he is a bust, there are multiple years of minor league track record that says he is just in a slump. Playing in Coors will help Iannetta, plus there aren't many catching prospects that come along with huge bats, so Iannetta is my guy

First Base-James Loney, LA Dodgers
Loney put up a .901 OPS in 102 at bats in 2006. With Nomar Garciaparra's frequent trips to the DL, Loney could see a lot of action in 2007. He has good power and has the capability to hit for a high average. Loney is poised for a long major league career, but I would predict he will have not as much value in 2007, unless Nomar makes the inevitable DL stint.

Second Base-Eric Patterson, Chicago Cubs
This was probably the toughest position, along with AL catcher, to select. Patterson isn't very close to the majors, but he is the highest rated 2B prospect in the Pecota Top 100. The brother of Corey, Patterson starred at Georgia Tech and in a perfect world would develop into a high enough OBP guy to allow Alfonso Soriano to move to the 3 hole.


Shortstop-Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks
Scouts say Stephen could eventually end up becoming the better Drew. Considered perhaps the top talent in the 2004 Draft, the Padres took local SS Matt Bush (who is .216/.326/.311) with the #1 overall pick instead due to concerns about Drew's signability (he was represented by Scott Boras who, among other things, got a 20+ million dollar package for Jeremy Guthrie in the 2002 draft). Drew is among a crew of D-Backs young hitters who should be putting up huge numbers for the next decade or so.


Third Base-Andy LaRoche, LA Dodgers
This was a tough decision between LaRoche and Kevin Kouzmanoff, but in the end I went with LaRoche because of his higher ceiling. Kouzmanoff has been struggling a bit in '07, and he plays in a notorious pitchers park. LaRoche won't exactly spend his major league career in a bandbox, but he has more power potential than Kouzmanoff-but he is also at a greater risk to flop.


Leftfield-Josh Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds
One of the best stories so far in this '07 season. Picked one slot ahead of Josh Beckett, Hamilton certainly has been a bust. However, he seemingly has set aside his drug problems for the moment to have a very successful start of the season. Many scouts claim that if Hamilton were to fail as a position player, he could make it to the majors as a pitcher. Hamilton is full of untapped talent, and Baseball America's John Manuel said Hamilton could wind up being the best Rule 5 pick ever-and Johan Santana was a Rule 5 pick.

Centerfield-Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks
Young has been called pretty much a lock to go 20/20 in his rookie campaign-even though he might hit .260. Over the long term, Young's ceiling probably isn't as high as a lot of people project it to be, but for 2007 he should be a very valuable player, both in real life and for your fantasy teams.

Rightfield-Jeff Baker, Colorado Rockies
Baker, who attended Clemson and was born in Germany, is somewhat blocked in rightfield by Brad Hawpe. I hope he continues to be blocked since Hawpe is on my fantasy team, but Baker is certainly good enough to play his way into the lineup. He has nearly 1 homer for every 20 AB so far in his brief major league career, but he has also struck out nearly 4 times as much as he has walked. Nonetheless, Baker is a part of a Rockies team that has assembled some of the finest young talent in baseball.



Starting Pitcher- Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
Lincecum is widely considered the best pitching prospect in baseball. Although the acronym TINSTAAPP (There is no such thing as a pitching prospect) certainly holds true in a lot of places, I don't believe this is the case for Lincecum. Some scouts have concerns about his delivery and his extreme workload at Washington, but Baseball Prospectus's Will Carroll doesn't see anything too wrong with his mechanics and he's the best in the business. Lincecum should have a bright major league career, and out of the 2007 rookies probably has the best chance at winning 300 games.


Starting Pitcher-Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds
If Lincecum is pitching prospect 1, then Bailey is prospect 1A. A flamethrower that came out of Texas, Bailey would like to join fellow Texans Beckett, Clemens and Ryan who have gained reputations as fireballers. Bailey's strikeout rate so far at AAA has been down, but he should get called up sometime closer to the All-Star break. With Eric Milton out with an injury, there was speculation that Bailey could start this weekend, but I think that when the Reds call Bailey up, they want to make sure he stays up.

Starting Pitcher-Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers
Luckily the Brewers are winning and they can avoid rash decisions, such as calling up Gallardo. The Mexico native is 4-1 with a 2.53 ERA so far this year with Nashville, and has allowed just 1 homerun in 42.2 innings. While Gallardo is viewed by scouts as having #2 stuff, he will benefit in Milwaukee because he only has to be the #3 of that staff with Sheets and Capuano-assuming Sheets can stay healthy.

2007 AL All Rookie Team

Kudos to The Sports Flow for coming out with this idea. I was reading their selections and I was trying to decide who I would take for my all rookie team. The only problem was I had too many players I wanted to put on my team. So I decided to have one for the AL and one for the NL.

American League

Catcher-Jeff Mathis, LA Angels
I guess. There's really no one else to put at catcher, and nothing much to say about Mathis. Had 2 HR in 58 AB's in 2005. Definitely a dead spot in the AL lineup.

First Base-Ryan Garko, Cleveland Indians
The Stanford alum's only obstacle in Cleveland is playing time. If he gets into the lineup he will produce. This year he's hitting .284 with 3 HR. The 3:1 K/BB isn't good, but hopefully it's a case of small sample size.

Second Base-Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox
Even though PECOTA rated Pedroia the #6 prospect in all of baseball, I don't see him being that good. However, he will walk more than he strikes out. He should be good for around a .375 OBP, which would be good for a second baseman and nine hitter. On this team though he could bat leadoff.

Shortstop-Alexi Casilla, Minnesota Twins
If I would have made this list a couple months ago, my SS would definitely have been Brandon Wood. However, his move to 3B means Alexi Casilla gets moved into the role. Casilla is PECOTA's #1 SS prospect and the 7th ranked prospect in all of baseball. Casilla is seen as sort of a faster version of Pedroia. Hopefully his plate discipline will improve.

Third Base-Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals
From college player of the year, to minor league player of the year, to rookie of the year. Gordon is struggling so far in 2007, but he probably just needs time to adjust to major league pitching. Gordon will figure it out, and I see him hitting around 25 homeruns this season.

Leftfield-Adam Lind, Toronto Blue Jays
Lind, who went to South Alabama led the Eastern League (AA) in slugging percentage last year. Lind, who was a first baseman as an amateur, will probably move positions a few times before eventually settling in as a DH. Lind has had a tough go of things so far this season, going .242/.320/.424 in 18 games. But scouts and statheads alike agree that Lind will go on to put up big numbers in his career.

Centerfield-Elijah Dukes, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Character issues were a big concern for Dukes, but all indications are that he has put those to rest so far with Tampa. With the Rays glut of young outfield talent, Dukes is the one that scouts consider to be the most talented. A proverbial five tool player, Dukes has the potential to be a perennial 20/20 player.

Rightfield-Travis Buck, Oakland Athletics
A rookie out of Arizona State, Buck probably has the least potential out of anybody besides perhaps Mathis and Pedroia. Injuries in the Oakland outfield have pressed Buck into playing time, and all signs point to that being a long term position. Buck has shown power, but figures to be mostly a gap hitter during his major league career.

Designated Hitter-Billy Butler, Kansas City Royals
One scout has called Butler, who was drafted as a third baseman, "the worst professional infielder I've ever seen." Obviously Butler's calling card is his bat. The Royals drafted him in the first round as a signability pick, but Butler has proven to be a potential star, putting up huge numbers at every level. He and Gordon figure to be cornerstones for the next decade.

Starting Pitcher-Matt Garza, Minnesota Twins
The USA Today Minor League Player of the Year, Garza was one out away from losing his rookie status. Inexplicably Garza began 2007 in AAA, but with Sidney Ponson's struggles he doesn't figure to be there for long. Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker are both having better seasons in AAA, but Garza has the highest upside of the three.

Starting Pitcher-Phil Hughes, New York Yankees
Highly regarded as the top pitching prospect in all of baseball, Hughes unfortunately was placed on the Disabled List and will likely not return to the Yankees until July. Hughes has a plus fastball and an amazing curveball, plus he has a major league changeup which sets him apart from a lot of prospects. Picked in the lower half of the first round, Hughes helped spearhead the movement by the Yankees to improve their farm system.

Starting Pitcher-Adam Miller, Cleveland Indians
Miller missed a large chunk of 2005 due to injury, but he still is a top prospect. Miller is still the 6th starter or so in Cleveland, and it is unclear how much time he will spend in the majors in 2007. But he is a huge part of the Tribe's future plans. In 5 starts in Buffalo this year, Miller is 3-0 with a 2.32 ERA and 30 strikeouts to just 11 walks.

-Note: I have never agreed with MLB's policy that Japanese players (a la Daisuke Matsuzaka) should be viewed as rookies, so that is why he is absent from this team.

Leave a comment as to who you would switch out of this team

First Post

Hello everyone. This is my third, yes third, attempt at a blog. By now I am most certainly just wasting valuable bandwidth. But you can check out some of my old stuff at www.inbeanewetrust.blogspot.com I also did a couple of guest posts at The Sports Flow so you can check those out if you wish as well.

This blog will be mostly baseball-centric, especially in the summer, but check back in other seasons for some other sports. We also don't ignore the niche sports here, so if you're a college baseball fan, or a college hockey fan or even a soccer fan, don't hesitate to come back.